Five Questions to Ask Your Equity Curve Every Week

Why the Curve Beats a Single P&L Number

End-of-week P&L tells you what happened. The shape of your equity curve hints at how it happened: smooth drift, stair-steps, chop, or cliff drops. Journaling that shape weekly builds pattern recognition faster than staring at individual trades alone.

Question 1: Is the Slope “Earned” or “Lucky”?

A steep week can be one large winner masking mediocre process. Ask whether the bulk of gains came from planned setups you have historical stats for—or from one-off risk.

• Earned: Wins cluster in setups with documented rules and similar risk.
• Fragile: One trade represents most of the week’s P&L; rules were stretched.

Question 2: Are New Highs Holding?

Peaks that immediately give way to giveback often mean oversizing, late chasing, or regime mismatch. Note whether each new high closed the week above the prior swing high on your journal’s account curve.

Question 3: How Deep and How Long Was the Worst Dip?

Measure max drawdown for the week and recovery bars (days or sessions) to get back to flat. Widening dips with slower recovery are a yellow flag even if the week ended green.

Question 4: Is Volatility of Results Rising?

Compare the absolute daily P&L swings to your trailing average. Rising volatility of outcomes—without a deliberate strategy change—often precedes discipline breakdown.

Question 5: What One Process Change Does the Curve Suggest?

Pick one lever for next week: size, number of trades, session filter, or setup filter. The curve should drive a hypothesis you can test—not a vague “trade better.”

Summary

1. Separate earned edge from outlier wins.
2. Watch whether highs stick.
3. Track drawdown depth and recovery speed.
4. Monitor volatility of daily outcomes.
5. Commit to a single, testable process tweak.

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