Market Overview — Week of April 1, 2026
This week's market action was dominated by continued US Dollar weakness as DXY closed below the critical 103.00 level on above-average volume. Equity markets spent most of the week in a tight consolidation after a three-week rally that pushed the S&P 500 within 1.5% of all-time highs.
Key weekly moves:
| Asset | Open | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 103.40 | 102.65 | -0.72% |
| EURUSD | 1.0820 | 1.0905 | +0.79% |
| GBPUSD | 1.2650 | 1.2745 | +0.75% |
| S&P 500 | 5,680 | 5,662 | -0.32% |
| NAS100 | 19,840 | 19,790 | -0.25% |
Dollar (DXY) — Structural Support Break
The US Dollar Index finally cracked 103.00 — a level that had held as support for 6 consecutive weekly closes. The break came after:
- Softer ISM Manufacturing data (48.3 vs 49.8 expected) suggesting further cooling
- Comments from Fed Governor Waller hinting at mid-year rate cut possibility
- Positioning squeeze: CFTC data showed speculative long USD positions at highest level since Q3 2025
With DXY now below 103, the next major support sits at 101.50 — the September 2025 low. A sustained hold below 103 would be structurally significant.
EUR/USD — Watch 1.0950
EURUSD tested the 1.0950 resistance zone on Friday before pulling back to close at 1.0905. This level has been a significant ceiling since November 2025. A weekly close above 1.0950 would open a path toward 1.1100.
Key drivers:
- Eurozone CPI came in at 2.1% YoY — very close to ECB's 2% target
- ECB President Lagarde maintained language around "data dependence"
- German factory orders rebounded 1.8% MoM (vs 0.5% expected)
GBP/USD — Momentum Holds
Cable continues its strong rally from the 1.2400 support established in February. The pair is approaching 1.2800 — a multi-month resistance zone. UK economic data has surprised to the upside for three consecutive weeks.
S&P 500 — Consolidation After Rally
After a clean 7% rally from the mid-March lows, SPX is in healthy consolidation. Price held above the 5,600 level all week, which was previously resistance. Breadth remains positive with 64% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average.
Sectors to watch:
- Technology: Slight underperformance this week. AI infrastructure names pulling back after strong Q1.
- Financials: Outperforming as yield curve continues to steepen — favorable for bank margins
- Energy: Range-bound with oil hovering around $72/barrel
Key Events Next Week
- Wednesday: FOMC Minutes release (previous meeting)
- Thursday: US Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday: US Consumer Sentiment (Michigan Survey)
This analysis is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.